Technical advisory service on climate science research, focusing on down scaling climate models for providing local impact assessments for NMA by WDC

Source: World Bank — One WASH—Consolidated Water Supply, Sanitation, and Hygiene Account Project (One WASH—CWA)

REQUEST FOR EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST

(CONSULTING SERVICES – INDIVIDUAL CONSULTANT)

COUNTRY: Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

NAME OF PROJECT: One WaSH National Program- Consolidated WaSH Account (OWNP-CWA) Phase II

Credit No.: IDA-ET-6445

Assignment Title: Individual Consultant for Technical Advisory Service on climate science research focusing on downscaling climate models for providing local impact assessments

Reference No.: ET-WDC-219572-CS-INDV

1. The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia has obtained financing from the World Bank towards the cost of the Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene Project (OWNP-CWA) phase II, and intends to apply part of the proceeds for consultancy service.

1. The consulting services (“the Services”) include technical and contractual support services from an independent position for the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute on Technical Advisory Service on climate science research focusing on downscaling climate models for providing local impact assessments, which are described in the following.

1. Background

Ethiopia’s WASH sector is vulnerable to climate change, and the impacts of climate change are expected to increase. As the earth’s atmosphere continues to warm as a result of increased greenhouse gas concentrations, it is projected that precipitation patterns will change, and the likelihood of droughts in some locations may increase. The main tool for providing insights into possible future climate changes is climate modeling. Climate models are mathematical models that simulate the behavior of Earth systems based on the fundamental laws of physics. Generally, General Circulation Models (GCMs) simulate planet-wide climate dynamics, representing a powerful instrument for simulating the response of the global climate system to external forcing.

However, General Circulation Models (GCMs) are generally unsuitable for simulating the local climate, since they are currently characterized by resolutions generally around or coarser than 100 km, while many important phenomena occur at spatial scales of less than 10 km. Moreover, General Circulation Models (GCMs) do not adequately account for vegetation variations, complex topography, and coastlines, which are important aspects of the physical response governing the regional/local climate. Due to these limitations with General Circulation Models (GCM), downscaling techniques have been developed which extract provide climate information at regional/local scales. One of the most effective tools for providing high-resolution climate analysis through dynamical downscaling is the regional climate model (RCM) (in contrast to statistical downscaling). Regional climate models (RCMs) are often able to provide an accurate description of climate variability on local scales and a detailed description of climate extremes, including the statistics of extreme weather events.

Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) is not currently capable of producing high-resolution climate projections and regional climate impact assessments, due to technical capacity gaps in regional climate modeling. Hence, capacity building training at Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) is essential, in line with this, Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) is planning to hire an international advisor and a team of national experts to conduct a Technical advisory to support Capacity Building Needs for Regional Climate Modeling for Improved Climate Information and Impact Assessments. These Terms of Reference deal with the requirements of the international advisor. The outcomes of this assignment are expected to be improved climate services provision by Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI), improved capabilities in regional climate modeling research, impacts, and adaptation studies. Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) will be able to meet international service standards.

1. Objectives of the assignment

The objective of the advisory services is to enable Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) to equip skill and knowledge of regional climate model (RCM) in order to produce high-resolution climate information and apply it for local level impact assessment.

The specific objectives of this assignment are to:

• To provide guidance to design a training program for regional climate modeling and impact assessment studies and the necessary computer programming skills necessary to implement regional climate modeling.
• In partnership with national experts, to contribute to building capacity in the use of regional climate modeling for different applications over Ethiopia.
• Instigate the establishment of a Regional Climate Modeling Center at Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI).
• To lead the design of a strategic research program for Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) on regional climate modeling, in conjunction with partners from a national university.
• To develop and initiate working relationships on research with local and international universities.

1.  Scope of Services

• In general, the technical advisory work will include the following: -
• Develop a program for training Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) staff on regional climate modeling. The training program should cover aspects such as the background and purpose of General Circulation Models (GCM), regional climate model (RCM), model installation, data preparation/pre-processing, post-processing of model outputs, and model verification.
• The lead Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) to establish a regional climate modeling center, capable of running regional climate models (RCMs). The advisor will guide the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) on the choice of an appropriate regional climate model (RCM). 
• Contribute to training technical staff on an overview of General Circulation Models (GCM), regional climate model (RCM), and downscaling techniques, in partnership with national experts.
• Lead the development of a medium-term research agenda for Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) (5 years)
• Identify a clear research working environment on regional climate science between Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI), local and international universities, and research institutes
• Assist Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) to develop a full grant research proposal on the identified research agenda.

1. Roles and Responsibilities

In order to ensure effective training and development of the research agenda of Regional Climate Modeling, the following coordination role and responsibility mechanisms need to be put in place.

• The technical advisory, during the period of the assignment, maintains close communication with and is accountable to Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI).
• The project partner organization, Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) will facilitate the process of meteorological data provision and facilitate the necessary infrastructure (HPC) for the training and collaborative research.
• Other details on roles and responsibilities will be described in the contract agreement.
• It is planned that the consortium of national experts will also be engaged to support the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) in strengthening its capacity to use Regional Climate Modeling. It is expected that the consultant will be working and coordinating closely with this consortium.

1. Timing/Duration of the Assignment

The assignment will be performed in a lump-sum contract with a duration of 60 (sixty) working days from the date of commencement of the assignment.  The detailed Terms of Reference (TOR) for the assignment can be obtained at the address given below.

1. Required Qualifications and Experience

The consultant is expected to have:

• Master and Ph.D. Degree (MSc minimum, Ph.D. preferred) in Meteorology Science and related disciplines with at least 10 years of professional experience in the area (modeling and operational forecasting service).
• Proven experience in weather and climate observations, climate outlook and early warning systems, fundamental climate research.
• Technical skills in running climate models and programming as well as in graphical and statistical tools (e.g. Python, Mat lab, R, etc.) are mandatory for this consultancy.
• A good track record of delivering consultancies that involve the processing of large volume of climate change projection under a tight schedule is required;
• Proven experience in strategy formulation, policy planning, proposal writing, baseline/end line assessment, and facilitation of high-level consultation events.
• Proven excellent communication and writing skills with at least 5 years of experience in participatory consultative processes involving various stakeholders.
• Knowledge about National Metrological & Hydrological Service (NMHS), Regional and Global weather, and climate prediction is advantageous.
• Previous engagement/cooperation with operational forecasting centers like National Metrological & Hydrological Service (NMHS), regional sectors like ICPAC is advantageous.
• Excellent command of English. Command of Amharic would be an advantage.

1. Ministry of Water and Energy now invites eligible individual consultants “Consultants” to indicate their interest in providing the service. Interested consultants should provide information demonstrating that they have the required qualification and relevant experience to perform the service.
2. The evaluation criteria: Qualification and Experience mentioned above under 8, their capability on the basis of academic background, general and relevant experience, and knowledge of the situation and dynamics in developing countries.

1. The attention of interested Consultants is drawn to Section III, paragraphs, 3.14, 3.16, and 3.17 of the World Bank’s “Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers” July 2016 (“Procurement Regulations”), setting forth the World Bank’s policy on conflict of interest. 

1. The consultant will be selected in accordance with the individual consultant selection method set out in the Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers.

1. Further information can be obtained at the address below during office hours 8:30 AM to 12:30 AM in the morning and from 1:30 PM to 5:30 PM in the afternoon.
2. Expressions of interest (including a recent and comprehensive CV with a letter of application and other relevant supporting documents) must be delivered in a written form to the address below in person, or by mail, or by e-mail (PDF format) by February 28, 2022, on or before 4:00 PM.

Ministry of Water & Energy

Attn: Mr. Nuredin Mohammed, Engineering, Procurement & Contract Administration Directorate Director.

Postal address: 13/1076

Street address: Haile Gebresilasie Street

Ministry of Water & Energy Building, Floor Number 01, Room number 35

City: Addis Ababa, Country: Ethiopia

Tel: +251-116898003 /+251-116898035

Email: nuredinmohammed@yahoo.com 

Country: Ethiopia, Addis Ababa.