support for operationalization of existing NMA numerical weather prediction system with ECMWF data stream by WDC

Source: World Bank — One WASH—Consolidated Water Supply, Sanitation, and Hygiene Account Project (One WASH—CWA)

REQUEST FOR EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST

(CONSULTING SERVICES – FIRMS SELECTION)

COUNTRY: Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

NAME OF PROJECT: One WaSH National Program- Consolidated WaSH Account (OWNP-CWA) Phase II

Credit No.: IDA-64450

Assignment Title: Selection & Employment of Consulting Firm for Consultancy Service of Support for Operationalization of existing Ethiopia Meteorological Institute (EMI) Numerical Weather Prediction System with European Centre for Mid-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Data Stream

Reference No.: ET-WDC-231722-CS-QCBS

The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) has received financing from the World Bank toward the cost of implementation of Water Supply, Sanitation & Hygiene Projects and intends to apply part of the proceeds for consulting services.

Objectives of the assignment

The objective of the consultancy services is to enable Ethiopia Meteorological Institute (EMI) to have well-organized weather and climate modeling center which will enhance operational weather forecasting and the provision of weather services through training and operationalization.

The specific objectives:

• To provide accurate and reliable weather and climate forecasts in Ethiopia.
• To establish the weather and climate modeling center.
• To develop a dependable verification system.
• To identify the data which is essential for training and operation from European Centre for Mid-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) data stream
• To conduct training on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), Weather Research, and Forecasting (WRF).
• To assess capabilities for the existing Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) activities and identify knowledge gaps.
• To propose activities to reduce identified knowledge gaps in coping with the weather and climate prediction.
• To implement and operate the revised Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling schemes. 
• To make documentation Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and general circulation model (GCM) training and operational method.

 Scope of Services

Ethiopia had been struck by different weather and climate-related extremes at different times of its history. Most of the hazards are mainly drought and flood. As mentioned above, the purpose of this assignment is to assess the weather and climate forecast at different time scales in Ethiopia. This encompasses the assessment of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate modeling the like Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and general circulation model (GCM). The spatial and temporal extent of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate modeling need to be analyzed and should be presented in an easily understandable way appealing to Ethiopia Meteorological Institute (EMI) users. The consultancy work should give great emphasis on training and operationalizing weather and climate forecasting.

In general, the consultancy work should include the following but not limited to:

1. Capacity Building and Gap Assessment
   • Identify knowledge gaps in coping with the weather and climate forecast.
   • Assess technical capacity gaps in the existing implementation of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) (and climate modeling).
   • Consult all available works on weather and climate prediction modeling in Ethiopia and worldwide and make a literature review.
   • Conduct relevant training which is involved Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and general circulation model (GCM) for weather and climate prediction and should prepare a detailed module for the training activities on weather and climate prediction.

1. Integration and use of all available inset data for modeling and forecasting input

Ethiopia Meteorological Institute (EMI) has several types of data recording stations both digital and manual, among 250 Automatic weather stations currently only 50 of them are consumed for model correction and dynamical forecasting model- Weather Research and Forecasting  (WRF). Through this engagement at least all AWS data should be consumable for model correction to have a better representation of Ethiopian complicated topography in the model. This integration of gauge data to the model needs to understand the format of each data format and customize specific script to each data type.

• Modeling and Downscaling dynamical forecast for sub-seasonal to seasonal scale customize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with better initial and boundary condition and make operationalize and set sustainable modeling Environment.
  • Data assimilation to correct the model (3Dvar and 4Dvar)
  • Use European Centre for Mid-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) initial condition data for Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialization
  • Test and verify the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for sub-seasonal to seasonal scale and recommend the verification methods.
  • Configure the model on HPC in such a way to sustain operational work
• Downscaling of different regional and dynamical forecasting models for National consumption.
  • Adapt the recommended downscaling and bias correction techniques for S2S forecasting of different general circulation models (GCMs).
  • Recommend and set out an ensemble of the multiple model products
  • Develop operational schemes for the revised Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and general circulation model (GCM) modeling that is implemented at national, zonal, and district levels.
  • Make operationalize of the ensemble forecasting techniques of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and general circulation models (GCMs) both for sub-seasonal to seasonal scale. The consultative work should have documentation that comprises all approaches and methods on training and implementation parts. It should follow standard scientific reporting techniques.

Duration of the Assignment: The assignment will be performed in a lump-sum contract with a duration of 120 (one hundred twenty) working days from the date of commencement of the assignment.  The detailed Terms of Reference (TOR) for the assignment can be obtained at the address given below. The Consultant is expected to have at least 3 (three) qualified and with similar working experience individual members. The detail can be referred from the Terms of Reference which can be provided upon request by applicants.

The Ministry of Water & Energy now invites eligible consulting firms (“Consultants”) to indicate their interest in providing the services. Interested Consultants should provide information demonstrating that they have the required qualifications and relevant experiences to perform the Services.

The shortlisting criteria are:

• Core business and years in business;
• Relevant experience; and
• The technical and managerial capability of the firm.

The attention of interested Consultants is drawn to Section III, paragraphs, 3.14, 3.16, and 3.17 of the World Bank’s “Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers” July 2016 (“Procurement Regulations”), setting forth the World Bank’s policy on conflict of interest. 

Consultants may associate with other firms to enhance their qualifications but should indicate clearly whether the association is in the form of a joint venture and/or a sub-consultancy. In the case of a joint venture, all the partners in the joint venture shall be jointly and severally liable for the entire contract, if selected.

A Consultant will be selected in accordance with the Quality and Cost Based Selection method set out in the Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers.

Further information can be obtained at the address below during office hours 8:30 AM to 12:00 AM in the morning and from 1:30 PM to 5:00 PM in the afternoon.

Expressions of interest must be delivered in a written form to the address below in person, by mail, or by e-mail (PDF format) by February 28, 2022, on or before 4:00 PM.

Ministry of Water & Energy

Attn: Mr. Nuredin Mohammed, Engineering, Procurement & Contract Administration Directorate Director.

Postal address: 13/1076

Street address: Haile Gebresilasie Street

Ministry of Water & Energy Building, Floor Number 01, Room number 35

City: Addis Ababa, Country: Ethiopia

Tel: +251-116898003 /+251-116898035,

Email: nuredinmohammed@yahoo.com,

Country: Ethiopia, Addis Ababa.